If a data point in a player’s profile stands out as a flag, consideration for other facets of a player’s profile–such as athletic or in-game performance–should be prioritized.
The second of the series will then look at the combine performance–such as 40 time and 3-cone drills. The two dashed vertical lines represent the 25th and 75th percentile thresholds for players that finished their respective season as a top-36 WR in PPR scoring.
This could further support the hypothesis that larger hands correlate to top-end fantasy production–at least for Wide Receivers.
In this case, looking at a player’s points per game (PPG) is a preferred productive measure: while it is by no means perfect, it helps to translate these findings into meaningful, actionable data points.
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A note of further clarification: in this exercise, I elected to count every season for every player as an individual data point. Who... Aaron Jones leads all RB's in PPR points, yet a different RB is the... @ekballer is at it again testing efficiency metrics for usefulness. In many cases, this resulted in a player such as Larry Fitzgerald creating a “stack” of multiple top-X seasons.
Measurements capture important information–much of this information outside of weight remains static over the course of a player’s career. In many cases, this resulted in a player such as Larry Fitzgerald creating a “stack” of multiple top-X seasons. A sub-25th percentile Hand Size is not a nail in the coffin; it should, however, like all metrics, be taken in stride with a player’s athletic profile as a whole. Healthy Christian Kirk breaks free with his feet and fingertips, Vacuum the floor? Or do they? Join the #NERDHERD and gain premuim access to - extra Weekly Podcast, Rankings, Film Room and more... Dynasty Nerds Embroidered Champion Packable Jacket, #Nerdherd Pennant - American Apparel 3/4 sleeve raglan shirt, #Nerdherd Badge Members Only | American Apparel Long sleeve t-shirt.
By identifying the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentile for hand size for players that finished in the top-12, top-24 and top-36, we can begin to identify thresholds for ideal hand size. Hand Size is the measurement from the tip of the thumb to the tip of the pinky from an outstretched hand.
Notable 2020 WRs that are below the 25th percentile for top-36 receivers: Of the 515 WRs that have recorded a fantasy score since 2000, only 23 have had a hand size of 9 inches or less and had at least 1 top-36 season in PPR. The chart below shows the hand size relative to points-per-game for players designated as WR since 2000. This series will be written in 2 parts: the first will examine the historical data regarding measurements–such as hand size and arm length–and then examine the 2020 rookie class using the historical data as a filter.
It is different than Wingspan, which measures the distance between the tips of a player’s middle fingers with arms extended.
Fitzgerald is entering his age-37 season and his targets will take another hit with DeAndre Hopkins now in the fold.
NFL footage © NFL Productions LLC. BMI has the tightest spread between 25th and 75th percentile marks. Your email address will not be sold or shared with anyone else.
I love working on the #NerdScore. YEAR TEAM G REC YDS AVG LNG TD 1st 1st% 20+ 40+ 2004 Arizona Cardinals We can examine such measurements with confidence. Latest on Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN PPG, in this case, will be the measure of a player’s total points scored (using points-per-reception as the standard format) and dividing that by a player’s games played.
These will warrant a different look as, unlike measurements, performance can change over time. Windhorst: Fitzgerald's Suns investment is smart for Sarver too, Fitzgerald: Murray's talent is out of this world, Fitzgerald: Kyler's 'really got the juice'. No longer a downfield threat, Fitzgerald has ranked in the 17th percentile or lower in YPR in each of the past five seasons and hasn't cleared six touchdowns since 2015. Larry Fitzgerald reaches 1,400 career receptions The Pitt great and Jerry Rice are the only NFL receivers to reach the milestone By Mike Wilson Oct 26, 2020, 1:30pm EDT Join over 10,000 subscribers and get updated on new podcast releases, private giveaways, new tools, mock drafts and more... We hate spam. Armchair analysts confirm their biases about the quality of players. Fitzgerald's role limited him to just one weekly finish better than 19th last season (ninth in Week 1). Larry Fitzgerald. Hilton (2014 and 2016).
In addition to comparing measurements and athletic performance to fantasy points, we identifying where players tend to finish in terms of fantasy scoring relative to their position rank in a PPR format.
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Talking heads get paid six figures to discuss the relevance of a player’s hands, to dissect athletic movements that are rarely (if ever) employed on an actual football field.
WRs, Part 2: SEP, TCR, and More.
By doing so, we will be able to further recognize the significant correlation between measurements and fantasy performance. Hit the DynastyGM to see which teams he is rostered on. A reason for this could be due to the way BMI can quickly shift from athlete to athlete: a 5’11”, 200lb player has a BMI that is .8 points higher than a 6’0″, 200lb player.
Regardless, the thresholds for each production tier seem to be more meaningful: Notable 2020 Prospects with a BMI of less than 26.25 (the 25th percentile for top-36 WRs): Lastly, here are a few notable NFL athletes that had at least 1 top-12 season with a BMI below the WR3 25th percentile of 26.25: These measurements and the resulting research should not be viewed as the be-all, end-all metric for football player evaluation. It is both a glorious and troubling time. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. The plot above demonstrates that Arm Size seems to be less important than Hand Size, as there is a broader distribution of top performers across all tiers. At the same time, many of us recognize we are being pulled into the sensationalism of it–entire narratives are built off of a single unit of measurement. Cardinals' bolder Kyler Murray stays humble, Cardinals' receiver DeAndre Hopkins' XXXL hands are 'incredible', Cardinals' Kyler Murray: DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk can all reach 1K yards, Fitz's goal: Turn protest momentum into change, Kliff Kingsbury: Cardinals support players' search for social justice, WR Fitzgerald doesn't recognize this Minneapolis, NFL all-decade: Best player on each NFC West team, every position, By the numbers: DeAndre Hopkins leads Larry Fitzgerald after seven seasons, DeAndre Hopkins gives Cardinals QB Kyler Murray everything he needs.
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While doing so may create more overlap on the graphs, it helps to highlight instances of consistency or outlier seasons.
Another notable observation is that the 75th percentile hand size for top-12 WRs is .25 inches larger than the 75th percentile for top-36 WRs.
Disclaimer: This series is in no way meant to identify locks or busts in the upcoming draft class.